IT'S NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM
What do the green power company Ecotricity, the supermarket Morrison’s and medical equipment company Asteral have in common? There seems little to put them in the same bracket, but they are all companies that have done well in spite of the recession.
With all the doom and gloom of the past year, it is easy to imagine that all sectors of the economy are in trouble. Thankfully, there are a number of sectors which have bucked the trend and kept ticking over very nicely. In some cases, their results have been positively sparkling as householders and businesses change their behaviour in the light of the economic downturn.
“Sectors of the world economy that have proven resilient to the global economic downturn include the classically defensive sectors such as utilities, telecommunications, healthcare and consumer staples (e.g. food and drink)," say Andrew Cates, Senior International Economist at UBS.
"These sectors of the world economy are not as exposed to the gyrations of global demand compared with so-called cyclical sectors and their activity and overall profitability are therefore less vulnerable during recessionary phases. In contrast to this, the fortunes of cyclical sectors - cars, construction, technology, financial services etc. - are more closely linked to the economic cycle and thus tend to suffer more during an economic downturn. And the evidence is consistent with this inasmuch as they have been less resilient to the economic downturn than defensive sectors in recent months.”
The Local Government Association’s research report From Recession to Recovery, published at the end of last year, showed that food retail, property rental, IT, research and development, business services, education and healthcare all performed well in the 1990-92 recession. It forecasts a bleaker picture for all sectors this time round, but predicts that the education and healthcare sectors will do best.
The report also predicts that the areas around Hastings, Bath, Ashford, London and Merseyside will be the least vulnerable to the recession, largely down to having companies in these sectors locally and fewer jobs in vulnerable sectors such as construction.
So which companies are doing well? Food and drink companies are taking advantage of the increasing trend for people to eat at home rather than go out. In the UK, Domino’s Pizza posted a set of sparkling results for the half year to the end of June – pre-tax profits up 25.2 per cent to £13.6 million.
The supermarket sector did well too, particularly those at the mid to lower price end of the market as shoppers traded down. Morrison’s, for example, saw its pre-tax profits rise by 22 per cent to £359 million for the six months to 2 August. Discounter Aldi, which now has more than 450 stores in the UK, said that in the first quarter of 2009 the number of UK and Ireland shoppers had increased by 11 per cent. Its 2008 revenues for the group were up almost 37 per cent on the previous year.
In the utilities sector, the green power company Ecotricity, which operates 31 wind turbine parks around the UK, is benefitting from concern over climate change. In its most recent financial results, it posted pre-tax profits of almost £2 million on turnover of £28 million. Both figures were up by around 46 per cent on the previous year.
The state of the healthcare sector is perhaps nowhere clearer than in the results of Balhousie Care Group, which operates 20 care homes around Scotland. Balhousie, whose founder Tony Banks has achieved fame through Channel 4’s Secret Millionaire, saw its pre-tax profits rise to £1.3 million in the latest financial year, up from £542,000 the year before.
Reading-based Asteral is another company doing well. It provides and maintains medical and diagnostic equipment at seven NHS hospitals, including Leicester Royal Infirmary and the Whittington in London. In its most recent results, it generated pre-tax profits of £1.6 million as NHS trusts realised the value of using a specialist company to mange expensive equipment in a cost-efficient manner.
With British households cutting back on their spending in order to pay down debts, economists are looking elsewhere for recovery in the UK economy.
Adam Chester, Senior UK Macroeconomist, Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB, says: “We expect net exports to contribute more to UK GDP growth over the coming years…The UK economy has much to gain from an opening of China’s markets and a recovery in export markets elsewhere. Judging by the improvement in some global leading indicators, such as the Baltic Dry Index, global trade volumes are beginning to rise again. If the UK economy can face into the improvement in global growth with a competitive exchange rate, the prospects of a successful rebalancing of the UK economy would be substantially enhanced.”
However, Chester believes that sterling needs to fall even further than its current levels for this to be assured.
The life sciences sector has been performing particularly well in export markets. The Minister for Trade, Investment and Small Business, Lord Davies of Abersoch, says: “In a world where populations are both growing and ageing, life sciences will play an increasingly important role. Despite the global recession, life sciences exports rose by 19 per cent per cent last year. Firms such as these are vital for Britain’s economic future.”
Glide Pharma is one such company that is doing well. The company produces a pen-like device called the Glide SDI which can be used to administer vaccinations and other injections without the use of a needle. The company has just returned from successful trade missions to India and Japan.
Inevitably, economists look to the public sector to keep the economy going in times of recession.
In its UK Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Lloyds TSB said: “For now, the public sector remains one of the few sources of UK growth, with government consumption contributing 0.5 per cent to annual GDP in the second quarter. In fiscal year 2008-09, total government expenditure rose by 6.5 per cent. Based on the plans put forward in the April Budget, total spending is projected to rise by 8 per cent in the current fiscal year and by a further 4.5 per cent in 2010-11.
However, the company sounded a note of caution about relying on the public sector. It said: “Given the fall in tax revenues, these projections are almost certain to be revisited either in the Pre-Budget Report later this year or in next year’s Budget.”